The Prospects for North Korea’s Survival

7 Glossary
9 Introduction

15 Chapter 1 Struggling to Survive

Dear Leader Kim Jong Il 14
State Institutions 18
Economic Contraction 24
The Origins of the North’s Economic Problems 25
The Crisis in Agriculture 28
Change, but not Reform 32
Hard or Soft Landing 38

39 Chapter 2 North Korea’s Nuclear Card
A Bitter History 39
The Origins of the North’s Nuclear Programme 42
The Basic Agreement’s False Promise 45
The North’s Nuclear Leverage 47
The Agreed Framework and KEDO 50

59 Chapter 3 North-South Relations: Opportunities and Threats

A new Approach? 59
The Peninsula’s Military Balance 62

69 Chapter 4 Regional Interests
US Interests 69
Japan’s Role 72
China’s Strategic Concerns 75
Russia’s Lost Role 77

81 Conclusion The Way Ahead

85 Appendix 1 Extracts from the North Korean Constitution, 1998

87 Appendix 2 Key Figures in the North Korean Regime

91 Notes

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