요 약 ··························································································· 9
Ⅰ. 서론 ······················································································21
1. 연구 배경과 목적 ·································································23
2. 연구 내용과 방법 ·································································28
Ⅱ. 미중관계 전망과 시나리오 유형 ·······························39
1. 기존 강대국 관계의 유형 ······················································41
2. 2008년 이후 미중관계와 강대국 정치 ·································54
3. 연구 분석틀: 2030년 미중관계 5가지 유형 ························66
Ⅲ. 2030년 미중관계 변수 ·················································81
1. 미중 국력 대비 ····································································83
2. 2030년 미중관계에 대한 미국 변수 ····································96
3. 2030년 미중관계에 대한 중국 변수 ··································117
Ⅳ. 2030년 미중관계 시나리오: 현실적 가능성과 우선순위
·····························································································145
1. 미중관계 시나리오의 현실적 가능성 ·································147
2. 유형별 미국의 시각과 우선순위 ········································159
3. 유형별 중국의 시각과 우선순위 ········································167
Ⅴ. 2030년 미중관계 변화와 북한에 대한 영향 ·····173
1. 북한 외교안보 분야 ···························································175
2. 북한 정치 분야 ·································································199
3. 북한 경제 분야 ·································································224
Ⅵ. 결론 및 시사점 ······························································243
1. 종합 평가 ·········································································245
2. 한국에 대한 시사점 ···························································254
참고문헌 ······················································································262
최근 발간자료 안내 ··································································277
