목차
발간사
요 약 ························································································································ 1
제1장 서 론 (이석) ··························································································· 29
제1절 머리말 ··································································································· 29
제2절 연구의 배경과 주제 ············································································· 30
제3절 분석방법과 한계 ··················································································· 36
제4절 글의 구성 ····························································································· 39
제1부 분 석
제2장 동북아 국제질서 변화의 기본시각 정립과 설명모형 구축 (이석) ······ 45
제1절 머리말 ··································································································· 45
제2절 국제질서의 구성과 변화요인 ································································ 48
1. 두 가지 축과 중심 세력········································································· 48
2. 질서 유지 메커니즘: 제도와 전략·························································· 52
3. 질서 변화의 요인·················································································· 56
제3절 중국의 부상과 동북아 질서 변화의 다이내믹스 ·································· 61
1. 중국의 부상과 국제질서: 세계 VS. 동북아 ············································ 61
2. 동북아 질서 변화의 접촉면과 전선 1: 경쟁과 갈등 ································ 67
3. 동북아 질서 변화의 접촉면과 전선 2: 협력과 적응································ 73
4. 동북아 질서 변화의 형식과 내용: 전략의 충돌······································ 75
5. 동북아 국가들과 아시아 패러독스························································ 81
제4절 동북아 질서 변화와 주요 국가들의 국가전략 ···································· 83
1. 미국: 전략적 재균형 ············································································· 83
2. 중국: 신형국제관계 ·············································································· 90
3. 일본: 미국을 통한 강한 일본의 형성······················································ 93
4. 한국: 미중 간의 협력을 위한 새로운 접근 ··········································· 101
제5절 시사점―동북아 질서 변화의 설명모형 ·············································· 105
제3장 동북아 경제질서 변화과정과 결정요인 분석 (장형수) ························· 112
제1절 미국과 중국의 경제규모 추이 전망 ··················································· 112
1. 미중의 경제규모 추이········································································· 112
2. 미중의 경제규모 추이 전망의 주요 고려요인······································ 114
3. 미중의 경제규모 추이: 낙관적인 중국 경제개혁 가정·························· 117
제2절 기존 국제경제질서에 대한 이해 ························································· 119
1. 브레턴우즈 체제(Bretton Woods System) 탄생의 의미······························ 119
2. 브레턴우즈 체제의 변천: IMF와 세계은행의 영향력 강화과정·············· 122
3. 여전히 국제경제질서 논의의 중심에 선 G7 ·········································· 125
4. 브렉시트(Brexit)와 미국의 경제패권····················································· 126
제3절 기존 국제경제질서의 급격한 변화가능성 ··········································· 128
1. 새로운 국제경제질서 확립의 조건들··················································· 128
2. 중국의 약진과 녹녹치 않은 현실························································· 131
제4절 동북아 지역에서의 미국과 중국 ························································· 133
1. 동북아 지역에서 증대하는 중국의 영향력··········································· 133
2. 아시아인프라투자은행(AIIB)에 대한 토의············································ 135
3. 중국과 미국은 동북아에서 경쟁자이자 협조자 ··································· 141
제5절 동북아 무역질서의 변화와 시사점 ····················································· 143
1. 국제통상질서의 새로운 흐름: ‘메가 FTA’ ············································· 143
2. ‘메가 FTA’의 등장 배경········································································· 144
3. 중국의 선택지는? ··············································································· 145
제4장 동북아 안보질서 변화과정과 결정요인 분석 (조남훈) ························· 152
제1절 머리말 ································································································· 152
제2절 동북아 4강의 안보전략과 군사력 ······················································ 154
1. 동북아 4강의 안보전략········································································ 154
2. 동북아 지역의 군사력········································································· 160
제3절 동북아 지역의 안보 이슈 ··································································· 166
1. 동북아에서 미국과 중국의 군사적 대치 ············································ 166
2. 중국과 일본의 군사적 대치와 일본의 헌법 개정 ······························ 173
3. 동북아에서 국가 간 협력 ··································································· 174
제4절 동북아의 안보질서 변화영향 ······························································ 176
1. 동북아 지역의 안보를 바라보는 틀 ··················································· 177
2. 동북아의 안보환경 변화방향 ······························································ 184
제5절 미래 동북아 안보질서 ········································································ 193
1. 미국과 중국의 안보전략 변화방향 ····················································· 194
2. 미래 동북아 지역의 안보질서 ···························································· 196
제5장 역사적 사례 분석: 1930년대 대공황 시기의 국제질서 변화 (김두얼) 199
제1절 머리말 ································································································· 199
제2절 전사(前史): 산업혁명과 영국경제의 부상 ··········································· 203
제3절 영국 대(對) 미국 ················································································ 209
제4절 19세기 말 20세기 초 동아시아 ························································· 214
제5절 전간기(戰間期, inter-war period): 1919-39년 ··································· 219
제6절 결론 ···································································································· 226
제2부 국가전략
제6장 미국: 전략적 재균형과 미국 우선주의 (이상현) ································· 231
제1절 머리말 ································································································· 231
제2절 미국의 세계전략: 변화와 연속성 ······················································· 232
제3절 미국의 대아시아 전략: 아태 전략적 재균형(Strategic Rebalancing) 237
제4절 트럼프 시대 미국의 외교안보전략 ····················································· 250
제5절 미국의 대외전략과 한국 안보에 대한 함의 ······································· 254
제7장 중국: ‘중국식 강대국외교’와 신형국제관계 (이동률) ···························· 264
제1절 머리말 ································································································· 264
제2절 중국 국내 정치 및 경제 현황 ···························································· 266
1. 시진핑 2기 체제 전망·········································································· 266
2. 중국의 경제 현황과 전망····································································· 274
3. 중국 인구 현황과 전망········································································· 282
제3절 중국의 대외전략 ················································································· 287
1. 중국의 글로벌 거버넌스 주도적 참여·················································· 287
2. 중국의 해양강국 지향········································································· 289
3. 중국의 대미전략················································································· 293
제4절 중국의 한반도정책과 한중관계 ·························································· 303
1. 한중관계의 현주소·············································································· 303
2. 한중관계의 과제와 전망 ····································································· 305
3. 중국의 북핵정책 전망 ········································································ 307
제5절 한국 대중외교의 과제 ········································································ 309
1. 한중관계의 실질적 내실화·································································· 309
2. 사드 배치문제에 대한 대응································································· 309
3. 한미중의 북핵협력 추진 ····································································· 310
4. 한중의 지경제적 협력의 회복······························································ 311
제8장 일본: 보통국가 일본과 경제의 대전환 (이원덕) ···································· 313
제1절 머리말 ································································································· 313
제2절 일본 국가전략의 핵심 요소 ······························································· 316
1. 자원의 한계와 ‘강한 국가 일본’의 회복················································ 316
2. 헌법 개정을 통한 보통국가 지향 ······················································· 319
3. 국가 정체성의 확립: 역사인식과 교육················································· 323
4. 대미동맹 강화와 대중 포위망의 구축 ················································ 325
제3절 안보보장전략: 군사적 보통국가의 추구 ············································· 329
1. 적극적 평화주의 ················································································· 329
2. 통합적 기동방위력 개념과 방위력 정비 ············································ 332
3. 집단적 자위권 행사 ············································································ 335
제4절 대외경제 전략 ····················································································· 340
1. 아베노믹스와 경제부흥 전략 ······························································ 340
2. 일본 대외경제 전략의 의미: TPP 사례의 분석 ··································· 348
제5절 일본의 국가전략 노선 ········································································ 350
제9장 러시아: 공세적 방어전략에서 선택적 전략 협력으로 (신범식⋅서동주) 353
제1절 머리말 ································································································· 353
제2절 러시아 외교의 대내적 환경 ······························································· 355
1. 정치: 현황과 전망················································································ 355
2. 경제: 현황과 전망················································································ 360
3. 사회: 인구학적 도전과 전망································································· 367
제3절 러시아 외교의 대외적 환경 ······························································· 371
1. 글로벌 정세와 러시아의 대응······························································ 371
2. 동북아 정세와 러시아의 신(新)동방정책············································· 376
제4절 한반도와 러시아 ················································································· 392
1. 러북관계 현황과 전망········································································· 392
2. 한러관계 현황과 전망········································································· 398
제5절 한러 전략적 협력방안 ········································································ 405
1. 한국의 북방경제협력과 러시아··························································· 405
2. 소다자주의 중견국 외교와 한러협력 ·················································· 408
3. 한러 양자협력을 통한 전략적 목표 달성·············································· 411
제3부 시사점
제10장 동북아 국제질서의 변화와 한국의 국가 어젠다 (이석⋅이상근) ········· 421
제1절 머리말 ································································································· 421
1. 경제 어젠다: 동북아 질서 변화와 한국경제의 발전전략 재정립··········· 423
제2절 안보 어젠다: 미중관계와 한국의 전략적 스탠스 ······························· 433
1. 트럼프 행정부의 대외정책과 미중관계 변화 가능성 ························ 433
2. 한미동맹과 한중 전략적 동반자관계의 충돌 ····································· 435
3. 미국의 동아시아정책 변화에 따른 한미중, 한중일, 한중러 협력············ 439
제3절 국가별 어젠다 1:
한미동맹의 재구축과 새로운 한미관계의 미래 비전 ························· 444
1. 한미동맹의 미래상 ············································································· 446
2. 한미일 안보협력의 이점과 한계 ························································· 450
3. 자주성과 동맹의 조화: 방위비 분담, 전작권 전환, 방위산업 ··········· 454
제4절 국가별 어젠다 2:
경제와 안보의 Great Divergence와 변화하는 한중관계 ··················· 459
1. 일대일로와 한국의 역할 ····································································· 459
2. 사드 배치와 한중 갈등 ······································································ 463
3. 북중관계 변화와 한국의 대응 ···························································· 468
제5절 국가별 어젠다 3:
새로운 동북아에서의 한일관계 ·························································· 473
1. 위안부 합의 논란과 이후의 합리적인 대응 ······································· 473
2. 일본의 집단적 자위권과 한일 안보협력 문제 ··································· 478
3. 동북아 한중일 삼국협력 프레임 구축 과제 ····································· 483
제6절 국가별 어젠다 4:
한반도 경제⋅안보의 새로운 가능성으로서의 러시아와 북방 축 ······ 486
1. 러시아의 신동방정책 ·········································································· 486
2. 신북방경제 협력의 추진 ····································································· 488
3. 동북아 소다자주의 협력의 활성화 ··················································· 491
제11장 결 론 (이석) ························································································· 494
참고문헌 ····································································································· 502
부 록 ················································································· 518
ABSTRACT ······································································································· 525
