Contents

Events at a Glance July 2014-June 2015...5

Chapter 1 Perspectives...15

Chapter 2 Drivers of Strategic Change...27

Chapter 3 Strategic Policy Issues...37
A New Era in the Oil Market...37
Reforming the Russian Military...49
Deadlines for Mitigating Climate Change...60

Chapter 4 United States...71

Chapter 5 Latin America...93
Brazil: Troubled Regional Power...100
Cuba: Dawn of a New Age?...109
Argentina: End of the Kirchner Era...113

Chapter 6 Europe...119
France: Growing Foreign Engagement...125
United Kingdom: Risks Remain after Election Surprise...136
Germany: Wider Security Role...145
Turkey: End of the Erdogan Era?...151

Chapter 7 Russia and Eurasia...161

Chapter 8 Middle East and North Africa...189
Syria: New Rebel Alliances...192
Iraq: Battling ISIS...203
Jordan: Struggle to Preserve Stabillity...213
Lebanon: Burden of Syrian War...215
Israel and Palestine: Hardline Politics and Resurgent Violence...217
Iran: Nuclear Agreement Reached...223
Saudi Arabia: Succession amid Regional Crises...235
Gulf States: Tentative Integration...241
Yemen: From Political Transition to Civil War...245
North Africa...252
Egypt: New Political Order...252
Maghreb: Differing Political Trajectories...257

Chapter 9 Sub-Saharan Africa...263
Nigeria: Elections amid Growing Insurgency...266
West Africa's Ebola Crisis...275
Persistent Conflicts in Eastern and Central Africa...281
Foreign Military Forces in Africa...291

Chapter 10 South Asia and Afghanistan...299
India: Stalled Reforms...301
Pakistan: New Counter-terrorism Efforts...309
Sri Lanka: End of Rajapaksa's Presidency...314
Afghanistan: Critical Transitions...318

Chapter 11 Asia-Pacific...331
China: Assertive Leadership...336
Japan: Defence Reforms and Faltering Recovery...356
Korean Peninsula: Diplomatic Stasis...366
Australia: Political Rows and Regional Hedging...380
Southeast Asia: Major Security Challenges, Political Uncertainties...387

Chapter 12 Prospectives...413

Index...421

Strategic Geography (after p. 160)
The Shifting economics of oil...II
China's growing foreign investments...IV
NATO's Readiness Action Plan...VI
Europe's home-grown Islamic extremism...VIII
Flows of migrants across the Mediterranean...X
Long road to recovery after West Africa's Ebola outbreak...XII
Challenges facing Nigeria's new president...XIV
Libya divided...XV
Yemen in the grip of Houthi insurgency...XVI
Expansion of Iraq's Kurdish Regional Government...XVII
Syria and Iraq: increasing complexity of crises...XVIII
Improved US relations hold promise for Havana...XX

Index of Regional Maps
North America...73
Latin America and the Caribbean...92
Europe...121
Russia and Eurasia...163
Middle East and North Africa...188
Sub-Saharan Africa...262
South Asia and Afghanistan...298
Asia-Pacific...333

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