요 약 ······································································································7
Ⅰ. 서론 ·······························································································17
1. 연구목적 ·················································································19
Ⅱ. 정책 대상으로서의 북한에 관한 인식 ·············································23
1. 북한 정권 및 주민에 대한 인식 ············································27
2. 북한에 대한 인식과 대북정책 목표의 상이성 ·······················70
3. 교류협력과 북한 변화에 관한 쟁점들 ···································73
4. 정책제언: 새 정부의 북한 인식과 교류협력 추진 방안 ·······91
Ⅲ. 대북·통일정책의 관계에 대한 쟁점 ··············································101
1. 대북정책과 통일정책의 관계 ···············································104
2. 북한 붕괴론과 흡수통일에 대한 입장 ·································114
3. 핵문제와 남북관계: 연계, 분리, 그리고 병행 ·····················135
4. 정책적 고려사항 ···································································146
Ⅳ. 남북 관계 및 통일, 북핵 위기를 둘러싼 국제변수의 쟁점들 ········151
1. 한국의 대북전략 환경으로서 지구 질서 및 동북아 질서의 변화,
지속 문제 ·············································································157
2. 북한 문제의 한반도화 vs 한반도 문제의 국제화 ···············162
3. 북핵, 북한 문제를 둘러싼 미·중의 합의 가능성 문제 ·······171
4. 한국의 동북아 지역전략과 대북·북핵전략의 배합 문제 ······175
5. 문재인 정부의 대외 환경의 변화, 지속 가능성 문제 ·········179
6. 정책제언 ···············································································187
Ⅴ. 결론 ····························································································193
참고문헌 ·····························································································201
최근 발간자료 안내 ············································································209
